Swapping out some fatty foods for bread, pasta, or sugar might slightly increase your chance of having a heart problem, but doesn't seem to change your risk of dying from heart disease.
Scientific Claim
Replacing 5% of energy intake from saturated fatty acids with carbohydrates is associated with a 7% higher risk of coronary events, but no significant change in coronary deaths, in adult populations.
Original Statement
“For a 5% lower energy intake from SFAs and a concomitant higher energy intake from carbohydrates, there was a modest significant direct association between carbohydrates and coronary events (hazard ratio: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.14); the hazard ratio for coronary deaths was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.82, 1.13).”
Evidence Quality Assessment
Claim Status
overstated
Study Design Support
Design cannot support claim
Appropriate Language Strength
association
Can only show association/correlation
Assessment Explanation
The abstract uses causal language in the conclusion, but the design is observational. The hazard ratio shows association, not causation. Verb strength must be conservative.
More Accurate Statement
“Replacing 5% of energy intake from saturated fatty acids with carbohydrates is associated with a 7% higher risk of coronary events, but no significant change in coronary deaths, in adult populations, based on pooled observational data.”
Evidence from Studies
Supporting (1)
Major types of dietary fat and risk of coronary heart disease: a pooled analysis of 11 cohort studies.
This big study found that if you swap out 5% of unhealthy fats in your diet for carbs like bread or sugar, you slightly increase your chance of having a heart problem, but it doesn’t change your chance of dying from one.