There could be other hidden factors — like diet, stress, or sleep — that make both belly fat and depression more likely, so we can’t be sure the fat itself is causing the mental health issues.

Even after accounting for age, smoking, exercise, and other health problems, belly fat still links to depression and anxiety — meaning the connection isn’t just because of other health issues.

We can’t tell if belly fat leads to depression, depression leads to weight gain, or if both happen together — because this study only looked at people at one point in time.