A new body shape score called ABSI—which considers waist size relative to height and weight—can help predict who’s at higher risk of dying early, even if they’re not obviously overweight.
Scientific Claim
Higher A Body Shape Index (ABSI) is associated with increased all-cause mortality risk in US adults, with each 0.01-unit increase linked to a 5% higher risk, supporting its role as a refined anthropometric predictor beyond BMI and waist circumference.
Original Statement
“each 0.01-unit increase in A Body Shape Index (ABSI) ... were associated with 5% (1.05; 1.03–1.08) increased all-cause mortality risk”
Evidence Quality Assessment
Claim Status
appropriately stated
Study Design Support
Design supports claim
Appropriate Language Strength
association
Can only show association/correlation
Assessment Explanation
The association is statistically significant and adjusted for confounders; the modest effect size is appropriately framed with 'associated with' and HR confidence interval.
Gold Standard Evidence Needed
According to GRADE and EBM methodology, here is what ideal scientific evidence would look like to definitively prove or disprove this specific claim, ordered from strongest to weakest evidence.
Systematic Review & Meta-AnalysisLevel 1aIn EvidenceWhether ABSI consistently predicts mortality across diverse populations better than WC or BMI.
Whether ABSI consistently predicts mortality across diverse populations better than WC or BMI.
What This Would Prove
Whether ABSI consistently predicts mortality across diverse populations better than WC or BMI.
Ideal Study Design
A meta-analysis of 20+ prospective cohorts using ABSI, WC, and BMI with individual-level data, adjusting for age, sex, smoking, and chronic disease, reporting all-cause mortality over ≥10 years.
Limitation: Cannot determine if ABSI improves risk prediction beyond existing tools in clinical practice.
Prospective Cohort StudyLevel 2bWhether ABSI predicts mortality independently of visceral adipose tissue volume.
Whether ABSI predicts mortality independently of visceral adipose tissue volume.
What This Would Prove
Whether ABSI predicts mortality independently of visceral adipose tissue volume.
Ideal Study Design
A cohort of 4,000 adults with annual ABSI and CT-measured visceral fat, followed for 12 years, testing if ABSI adds predictive value beyond imaging and metabolic markers.
Limitation: Does not prove causality or intervention benefit.
Randomized Controlled TrialLevel 1bWhether interventions that lower ABSI reduce mortality.
Whether interventions that lower ABSI reduce mortality.
What This Would Prove
Whether interventions that lower ABSI reduce mortality.
Ideal Study Design
A 10-year RCT of 2,500 adults with high ABSI (>0.095), randomized to structured weight loss + muscle-building program vs. control, with mortality as primary endpoint.
Limitation: Practical and ethical barriers to long-term RCTs on mortality.
Evidence from Studies
Supporting (1)
This study found that people with a higher ABSI number — a measure of body shape — were more likely to die from any cause, and the increase was exactly 5% per 0.01 point, just like the claim said.