The Claim
In patients with biopsy-confirmed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), the standard ASCVD Risk Estimator Plus has an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.63 for predicting myocardial infarction or stroke and 0.54 for predicting mortality.
What the research says
Supports is higher
Support is ahead, but a single strong opposing study can change this.
These are independent scores, not a percentage. Higher-grade studies count more, so a single strong opposing study can outweigh several weaker ones.
In people with MASH, a commonly used heart disease risk calculator accurately predicts heart attacks or strokes only moderately well (AUC 0.63) and predicts death even less accurately (AUC 0.54).
See the scientific wording
In patients with biopsy-confirmed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), the standard ASCVD Risk Estimator Plus has limited predictive accuracy for cardiovascular events, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.63 for myocardial infarction or stroke and 0.54 for mortality.
Fat buildup in the liver releases inflammatory signals into the blood, which damage blood vessel walls and alter how the body responds to cholesterol and blood pressure. This makes standard heart risk tools, which rely on standard cholesterol and blood pressure numbers, fail to accurately predict who will have a heart attack or die.
What the research says
1 studyIn people with severe fatty liver disease, the usual heart risk calculator isn’t very good at guessing who will have a heart attack or die — this study confirms it’s only slightly better than guessing, especially for death risk.
Score breakdown, mechanism chain, raw evidence, ideal studies needed & 1 supporting studies
Not medical advice. For informational purposes only. Always consult a qualified healthcare professional before making health decisions.