Measuring your waist is more accurate than your weight for predicting if you'll get sick or die early.
Scientific Claim
Waist circumference demonstrates superior predictive validity for metabolic disease and all-cause mortality compared to body mass index in adult human populations.
Original Statement
“Waist circumference is a better predictor of metabolic disease and early death than BMI.”
Evidence from Studies
Supporting (2)
This study found that measuring waist size is better than using BMI to predict heart disease risk in adults, which means waist circumference is a more accurate warning sign for health problems than BMI.
This study found that measuring waist size is a better way to predict metabolic problems than using body mass index (BMI), even though both are related to body fat. The bigger your waist, the higher your risk — more than what BMI shows.
Contradicting (2)
Ultrasound measurements of intraabdominal fat estimate the metabolic syndrome better than do measurements of waist circumference
The study found that using an ultrasound to measure fat inside the belly is better at predicting health risks than just measuring waist size — meaning waist size isn’t as good as the claim says it is.
Is Waist to Height Ratio Better than Other Indices of Obesity in Determining Cardiovascular Risk?
The study checked if measuring waist size is better than BMI at predicting health risks, and found they’re about equally good — so it doesn’t support the idea that waist size is better.