The Study
Semaglutide vs. liraglutide and incidence of diabetes and cardiovascular disease: A target trial emulation using real-world data.
This study looked at people who were already taking one of two weight-loss drugs and saw who got diabetes later. It found that people on semaglutide were less likely to get diabetes than those on liraglutide, but we don’t know if the drug itself caused that — maybe the people who got semaglutide were just healthier to begin with.
Analysis score
Maximum 72 for a cohort study.
Where the score came from
Two similar weight-loss drugs, semaglutide and liraglutide, were compared in real-world use to see which one better prevents type 2 diabetes.
Where does this study sit?
Reviews of RCTs (Meta-analyses)
Max 100Randomized Trials
Max 90Reviews of Cohort Studies
Max 85Cohort Studies
Max 72Reviews of Case-Control Studies
Max 63Case-Control Studies
Max 58Cross-Sectional & Case Series
Max 50Expert Opinion
Max 567 / 100
Quality score
Groups of people are followed over time to see who develops an outcome. Strong for identifying risk factors and associations, but cannot prove causation as firmly as RCTs.
Key takeaways
Summary
Based on the study abstract and findings.
- 1The diabetes benefit of semaglutide takes time to show up — it’s not immediate, but once it kicks in, it’s stronger than liraglutide’s.
- 2This matters because many people stop taking these drugs within a year.
- 3After 6 months, semaglutide users had 20% fewer new diabetes cases than liraglutide users; before 6 months, both were equally effective.
- 4Neither drug showed a clear difference in preventing heart attacks or strokes.
Score breakdown, methodology, conflicts of interest, evidence analysis & raw study data
Publication
Journal
British journal of clinical pharmacology
Year
2026
Authors
Ethan J. Cannon, Wendy Wang, F. Norby, Rob F. Walker, Shalini Kulasingam, L. Chow, Joel F. Farley, P. Lutsey
Related Content
Claims (6)
GLP-1 drugs have different effects on heart health in different people.
People taking semaglutide for six months or longer show a lower risk of developing diabetes compared to those taking liraglutide, and this difference does not appear earlier than six months.
In adults without diabetes or heart disease who are taking GLP-1 receptor agonists to lose weight, those taking semaglutide have a 12% lower incidence of developing type 2 diabetes within one year compared to those taking liraglutide, with the difference becoming detectable only after six months.
In adults without diabetes or heart disease who are taking GLP-1 receptor agonists to lose weight, the rates of heart attack, stroke, and heart failure are the same for those taking semaglutide compared to those taking liraglutide after one year.
There is no high-quality clinical trial evidence comparing whether semaglutide or liraglutide affects the risk of developing diabetes in adults who do not have diabetes or heart disease.
Among adults taking GLP-1 receptor agonists to lose weight, 79% of those taking liraglutide and 53% of those taking semaglutide stop treatment within one year.
Not medical advice. For informational purposes only. Always consult a qualified healthcare professional before making health decisions.