The Study
Accuracy in Predicting Repetitions to Task Failure in Resistance Exercise: A Scoping Review and Exploratory Meta-analysis
This study looked at lots of people who tried to guess how many more push-ups or lifts they could do before getting too tired. It found that, on average, they guessed wrong by about one rep—but it didn’t test if guessing better makes you stronger or safer. It just shows what people tend to do.
Analysis score
Maximum 85 for a systematic review with meta-analysis.
Where the score came from
When people lift weights and guess how many more reps they can do before quitting, they usually guess too high — by about one rep on average.
Where does this study sit?
Reviews of RCTs (Meta-analyses)
Max 100Randomized Trials
Max 90Reviews of Cohort Studies
Max 85Cohort Studies
Max 72Reviews of Case-Control Studies
Max 63Case-Control Studies
Max 58Cross-Sectional & Case Series
Max 50Expert Opinion
Max 539 / 100
Quality score
Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of cohort studies. They sit above a single cohort study but below a single randomized trial, because the underlying evidence is still observational.
Key takeaways
Summary
Based on the study abstract and findings.
- 1This means if you think you have 3 reps left, you probably only have 2 — which could lead to overtraining or injury if you push too hard based on your guess.
- 2People underestimate how many reps they have left by 0.95 reps on average.
- 3They get better at guessing if they wait until they're almost done, or if they're lifting heavier weights (fewer reps per set).
- 4Experience level doesn't help.
Score breakdown, methodology, conflicts of interest, evidence analysis & raw study data
Publication
Journal
Sports Medicine
Year
2021
Authors
I. Halperin, Tomer Malleron, Itai Har-Nir, P. Androulakis-Korakakis, Milo Wolf, J. Fisher, James Steele
Related Content
Claims (5)
When people estimate how many more repetitions they can perform during resistance exercise, their estimates become more accurate the closer they are to reaching physical failure, with a consistent reduction in underestimation of 0.025 repetitions for each unit of proximity to failure.
The accuracy of predicting how many repetitions a person can perform until failure in resistance training is not meaningfully different between novice and experienced lifters.
During strength training, people consistently estimate they have more repetitions left than they actually do, with an average error of 0.95 repetitions, regardless of individual differences or training conditions.
When people lift weights using fewer repetitions (12 or fewer), they more accurately estimate how many reps they can do compared to when they use more repetitions (over 12).
When predicting how many repetitions a person can perform during resistance exercise, the differences between individuals are small, with a standard deviation of 1.45 repetitions, meaning predictions are consistently too low at the group level but vary little between people.
Not medical advice. For informational purposes only. Always consult a qualified healthcare professional before making health decisions.