The Study
Estimated effects of reductions in processed meat consumption and unprocessed red meat consumption on occurrences of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, and mortality in the USA: a microsimulation study.
This study is like a computer game that predicts what might happen if people ate less meat. It doesn’t watch real people change their diets, so we can’t say for sure that eating less meat would actually prevent disease. It just shows what could happen based on other studies and math.
Analysis score
Maximum 0 for a computational/algorithm study.
Where the score came from
Scientists used math and health data to guess what would happen if Americans ate 30% less processed or red meat for 10 years.
Where does this study sit?
Reviews of RCTs (Meta-analyses)
Max 100Randomized Trials
Max 90Reviews of Cohort Studies
Max 85Cohort Studies
Max 72Reviews of Case-Control Studies
Max 63Case-Control Studies
Max 58Cross-Sectional & Case Series
Max 50Expert Opinion
Max 50 / 100
Quality score
Based on clinical experience or non-systematic literature reviews. The lowest level of evidence as they are most susceptible to bias and personal perspective.
Key takeaways
Summary
Based on the study abstract and findings.
- 1Yes, these numbers are very large and suggest that eating less meat could help many people stay healthier and live longer.
- 2Eating 30% less processed meat could prevent 353,000 diabetes cases, 92,500 heart problems, 53,300 cancer cases, and 16,700 deaths.
- 3Eating 30% less red meat could prevent 733,000 diabetes cases, 291,500 heart problems, 32,200 cancer cases, and 46,100 deaths.
- 4Cutting both could prevent over 1 million diabetes cases and 62,200 deaths.
Score breakdown, methodology, conflicts of interest, evidence analysis & raw study data
Publication
Journal
The Lancet. Planetary health
Year
2024
Authors
Joe Kennedy, Peter Alexander, L. S. Taillie, Lindsay M. Jaacks
Related Content
Claims (4)
Regular red meat, like steak or roast, isn't the same as processed stuff like bacon or hot dogs — they're made differently and might affect your health in different ways, so experts say we shouldn't treat them the same when studying their health effects.
If adults in the U.S. ate 30% less red meat like beef or pork, computer models predict we could avoid hundreds of thousands of diabetes, heart disease, and cancer cases—and save tens of thousands of lives—over 10 years.
If most adults in the U.S. ate 30% less red and processed meat, models predict we could avoid over a million diabetes cases, hundreds of thousands of heart problems, and tens of thousands of cancers and deaths in 10 years.
If adults in the U.S. ate 30% less processed meat like bacon and hot dogs, we could prevent hundreds of thousands of health problems — including diabetes, heart issues, cancer, and deaths — over the next 10 years.
Not medical advice. For informational purposes only. Always consult a qualified healthcare professional before making health decisions.