The Study
Correlations between the cumulative metabolic score for visceral fat and its dynamic trajectories with the onset of cardiovascular disease in middle-aged and older adults: findings from two prospective cohorts.
This study looked at people over time and noticed that those with higher fat and metabolic problems tended to get heart disease more often. But it didn’t change anything—it just watched—so we can’t say the fat caused the heart disease, just that they often happened together.
Analysis score
Maximum 72 for a cohort study.
Where the score came from
This study looked at how long-term metabolic health problems tied to belly fat affect heart disease risk in older adults.
Where does this study sit?
Reviews of RCTs (Meta-analyses)
Max 100Randomized Trials
Max 90Reviews of Cohort Studies
Max 85Cohort Studies
Max 72Reviews of Case-Control Studies
Max 63Case-Control Studies
Max 58Cross-Sectional & Case Series
Max 50Expert Opinion
Max 552 / 100
Quality score
Groups of people are followed over time to see who develops an outcome. Strong for identifying risk factors and associations, but cannot prove causation as firmly as RCTs.
Key takeaways
Summary
Based on the study abstract and findings.
- 1Yes — a 13–14% increased risk per point is meaningful over time, and 21.5% of people with worst trajectories developed heart disease within a decade.
- 2Each point increase in a belly-fat-related metabolic score raised heart disease risk by 13–14%.
- 3People with consistently high scores had about 21.5–21.7% heart disease rates over 5–9 years.
Score breakdown, methodology, conflicts of interest, evidence analysis & raw study data
Publication
Journal
The aging male : the official journal of the International Society for the Study of the Aging Male
Year
2026
Authors
Lisi Xu, Miao Sun
Related Content
Claims (4)
People with consistently higher metabolic scores indicating visceral fat accumulation have a higher risk of developing cardiovascular disease, with each point increase in the score corresponding to a 13-14% higher risk.
People who have consistently high levels of visceral fat and worsening metabolic markers over many years have a higher rate of cardiovascular disease compared to those who do not.
People whose bodies consistently accumulate visceral fat over time have a 21.5% to 21.7% rate of developing cardiovascular disease within 5 to 9 years, based on data from Chinese and English populations.
Persistently high blood sugar, high triglycerides, excess fat around the organs, and ongoing inflammation cause direct harm to the inner lining of arteries and lead to the development and rupture of fatty plaques.
Not medical advice. For informational purposes only. Always consult a qualified healthcare professional before making health decisions.