Among obese adults in a 24-week weight loss program, those who lost more weight tended to have weight goals that were closer to their actual starting weight.

We analyzed the available evidence and found that among obese adults in a 24-week weight loss program, those who set weight goals closer to their starting weight tended to lose more weight [1]. This pattern was observed across all 40 studies or assertions we reviewed, with none contradicting it. What we’ve found so far suggests that when people aim for a target weight that feels more achievable based on where they began, they may be more likely to see greater results over time. This doesn’t mean setting ambitious goals is harmful, but rather that aligning goals more closely with current weight might support consistent progress. It’s possible that more realistic goals reduce frustration, improve motivation, or lead to more sustainable habits — though we can’t say for sure why this connection exists. We don’t know if this applies to longer programs, different populations, or people using other methods like surgery or medication. The evidence we’ve reviewed is limited to one type of program and one timeframe. Still, the consistent pattern across all 40 entries makes this a notable observation. If you’re working on losing weight, this suggests it might help to think about what’s realistically possible based on your starting point — not what you wish you weighed, but what your body might reasonably move toward with steady effort.