The Study
Copeptin, Insulin Resistance, and Risk of Incident Diabetes in Older Men
This study found that men with higher levels of a substance called copeptin were more likely to get diabetes later on, but it didn’t prove that copeptin causes diabetes. It’s like noticing that people who eat more ice cream also get more sunburns — they’re linked, but ice cream doesn’t cause sunburns.
Analysis score
Maximum 72 for a cohort study.
Where the score came from
Scientists found that older men with higher levels of a stress-related hormone called copeptin were more likely to get type 2 diabetes later, even if they didn’t have high blood sugar yet.
Where does this study sit?
Reviews of RCTs (Meta-analyses)
Max 100Randomized Trials
Max 90Reviews of Cohort Studies
Max 85Cohort Studies
Max 72Reviews of Case-Control Studies
Max 63Case-Control Studies
Max 58Cross-Sectional & Case Series
Max 50Expert Opinion
Max 559 / 100
Quality score
Groups of people are followed over time to see who develops an outcome. Strong for identifying risk factors and associations, but cannot prove causation as firmly as RCTs.
Key takeaways
Summary
Based on the study abstract and findings.
- 1Yes — even men with normal blood sugar and no kidney disease showed this link, suggesting copeptin may signal early metabolic stress before diabetes develops.
- 2Men with copeptin above 6.79 pmol/L had a 78% higher chance of getting diabetes over 13 years.
- 3This dropped to 47% higher risk after accounting for insulin resistance.
Score breakdown, methodology, conflicts of interest, evidence analysis & raw study data
Publication
Journal
The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism
Year
2015
Authors
S. Wannamethee, P. Welsh, O. Papacosta, L. Lennon, P. Whincup, N. Sattar
Related Content
Claims (7)
Vasopressin increases the liver's production of glucose from non-sugar sources.
In older men, higher levels of copeptin are linked to a higher risk of developing diabetes, and about 17% of this link is explained by insulin resistance as measured by HOMA-IR.
In older men without prediabetes or kidney disease, higher levels of copeptin are linked to a greater chance of developing diabetes.
Men aged 60 to 79 without diabetes who have plasma copeptin levels above 6.79 pmol/L have a 78% higher incidence of type 2 diabetes over 13 years compared to those with lower levels, even when accounting for waist size, blood pressure, triglycerides, and C-reactive protein.
Including copeptin in existing models to predict diabetes risk in older men does not make the models more accurate, as their predictive performance remains the same.
People with persistently high levels of copeptin in their blood have a higher likelihood of developing type 2 diabetes compared to those with lower levels.
Not medical advice. For informational purposes only. Always consult a qualified healthcare professional before making health decisions.